⛏️ Greatland Resources (GGP) — Private Investor Portal

📈 AIM London — LON:GGP (pence)

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ASX Equiv (live FX)

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💡 ASX equiv = AIM price (pence) ÷ 100 × live GBP/AUD rate. FX via frankfurter.app.

📐 Technical Analysis — LON:GGP (Daily) Updated: 30 Mar 2026

🔴 Resistance & Fib Extensions

Ext 2.618 — major target1,289p

Ext 2.0 — bull target1,086p

Ext 1.618 — golden ext.960p

Ext 1.382883p

Ext 1.272846p

R1 — ATH (Jan 2026)757p ⚡

R2 — Fib 23.6% retracement679p

🟢 Support

S1 — Fib 38.2%631p

S2 — Fib 50% / Psych592p

S3 — Fib 61.8% ← PRICE NOW554p

S4 — Fib 78.6% / floor498p

S5 — Swing low / full retrace428p

📊 Fibonacci (428p → 757p)

▲ Ext 1.618960p

▲ Ext 1.382883p

▲ Ext 1.272846p

● ATH757p

▼ 23.6%679p

▼ 38.2%631p

▼ 50.0%592p

▼ 61.8% ← NOW554p

▼ 78.6%498p

· ⚡ MRE CATALYST (30 Mar): 564p close — testing 61.8% Fib (554p) as support. Pre-catalyst price was ~508p → +11% gap on announcement
· Fib structure (428p → 757p): Price now sitting on the golden ratio. 554p = must-hold. If 554p holds → first target 592p (50%), then 631p (38.2%), then retest 757p ATH
· ATH + Extensions: If ore reserve delivers: 757p → Ext 1.272 (846p) → Ext 1.382 (883p) → Ext 1.618 (960p). Bull case 1,086p (Ext 2.0)
· Volume: MRE day volume spike confirms institutional accumulation at 61.8% — not distribution
· Signal: Hold 554p = buy zone. Upgrade wave started — Macquarie 698p ⬆ + RBC Capital 807p ⬆ (30 Mar). Close above 592p = trend resumption. Break below 498p (78.6%) = invalidation

RSI (14)

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200-Day MA

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50-Day MA

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🇬🇧 FTSE100 Sentiment — Fear & Greed

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Based on FTSE100 momentum, RSI, 52-week range & 200MA

■0–20 Extreme Fear ■21–40 Fear ■41–60 Neutral ■61–80 Greed ▮81–100 Extreme Greed

Composite: FTSE100 RSI · 52-wk range · price vs 200MA · LON:GGP RSI. Not financial advice.

📈 ASX Australia — ASX:GGP (AUD) + UK equiv.

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ASX:GGP (delayed)

A$9.76

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All-Time High

A$14.43

Jan 2026

💡 UK equiv = ASX price × live AUD/GBP rate. FX via frankfurter.app. ASX price from chart above. Live ASX ↗

📐 Technical Analysis — ASX:GGP (Daily) Updated: 30 Mar 2026

🔴 Resistance & Fib Extensions

Ext 2.618 — major targetA$22.41

Ext 2.0 — bull targetA$19.36

Ext 1.618 — golden ext.A$17.48

Ext 1.382A$16.31

Ext 1.272A$15.77

R1 — ATH (Jan 2026)A$14.43 ⚡

R2 — Fib 23.6%A$13.27

🟢 Support

S1 — Fib 38.2%A$12.55

S2 — Fib 50% / PsychA$11.96

S3 — Golden ratio 61.8%A$11.38

S4 — Fib 78.6% ← PRICE NOWA$10.56

S5 — Swing low / full retraceA$9.50

📊 Fibonacci (A$9.50 → A$14.43)

▲ Ext 1.618A$17.48

▲ Ext 1.382A$16.31

▲ Ext 1.272A$15.77

● ATHA$14.43

▼ 23.6%A$13.27

▼ 38.2%A$12.55

▼ 50.0%A$11.96

▼ 61.8%A$11.38

▼ 78.6% ← NOWA$10.56

· ⚡ MRE CATALYST (30 Mar): ASX closed at A$10.84 before announcement — gap up expected at Tuesday open. Prior close was ~A$9.82 on 28 Mar. Market testing 78.6% Fib (A$10.56) as new base
· Fib structure (A$9.50 → A$14.43): 78.6% at A$10.56 is deep support — price is sitting on it. Recovery path: A$10.56 hold → A$11.38 (61.8%) → A$11.96 (50%) → A$12.55 (38.2%) → retest ATH A$14.43
· Extensions post-ATH: Ext 1.272 (A$15.77) → Ext 1.382 (A$16.31) → Ext 1.618 (A$17.48) → Bull case Ext 2.0 (A$19.36) — Argonaut target A$16.00 = Ext 1.322 zone
· Gold context: Gold ~US$3,100/oz (near ATH). Telfer AISC ~A$2,176/oz. At current spot = ~A$1,600+/oz margin. Best in class.
· Signal: Hold A$10.56 (78.6%) = accumulation zone. MRE catalyst + broker upgrades pending = asymmetric setup. Full recovery to ATH = +33% from here. Ext 1.618 (A$17.48) = +61% if Ore Reserve delivers

RSI (14)

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200-Day MA

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🧠 ASX200 Sentiment — Fear & Greed

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Based on ASX200 momentum, RSI, 52-week range & 200MA

■0–20 Extreme Fear ■21–40 Fear ■41–60 Neutral ■61–80 Greed ▮81–100 Extreme Greed

Composite: ASX200 RSI · 52-wk range · price vs 200MA · GGP RSI. Not financial advice.

AIM (LON:GGP)

757p

↑ All-Time High · 2 Mar 2026 · Current: 511p

H1 Revenue

A$977M

Record · FY2026 H1

H1 Net Profit (NPAT)

A$342M

Significantly above prior period

H2 Outlook

Confident

Telfer on track · FY2026 guidance maintained

📋 GGP — RNS Intelligence · Key Milestones, Synopsis & Roadmap LAST 12 MONTHS

▼

⚡ Key Milestones

📌 Jun 2025 — Dual listed on AIM (London) alongside ASX

📌 Aug 2025 — Strong preliminary FY25 results; Telfer integration complete

📌 Oct 2025 — Record 240,000m FY26 drilling program launched

📌 Nov 2025 — West Dome Underground: encouraging high-grade hits confirmed

📌 Dec 1, 2025 — Havieron Feasibility Study complete — NPV A$2.9bn post-tax, capex A$1.065bn

📌 Dec 2025 — A$500M debt facility committed for Havieron development

📌 Jan 2026 — Q2: 86,273oz gold + 3,528t copper; "very promising" Telfer drilling

📌 Feb 18, 2026 — COO Simon Tyrrell departs; Otto Richter acting COO

📌 Feb 23, 2026 — H1 FY26: Revenue A$977M · NPAT A$342.9M · Cash A$948M · Zero debt

📌 Mar 2026 — GDX inclusion confirmed · ASX 100 inclusion confirmed

📌 30 Mar 2026 — 🚨 Telfer MRE +150% → 8.0Moz Au · Combined Telfer+Havieron: 14.9Moz Au + 645kt Cu · M&I +163% · WDU maiden 0.6Moz @ 2.3g/t · O'Callaghans tungsten: 70Mt @ 0.35% WO₃ (246kt)

📊 Synopsis

Greatland acquired Telfer in 2025 and has executed exceptionally well. Telfer is cash-generative from day one — A$658M operating cash flow in H1 FY26 alone.

Balance sheet: A$948M cash, zero debt — plus a committed A$500M facility in reserve for Havieron construction.

Havieron Feasibility Study (Dec 2025) confirmed a world-class, lowest-quartile-cost mine with A$2.9bn post-tax NPV — adjacent to Telfer, using existing infrastructure.

Record drilling (240,000m FY26), expanding West Dome Underground, strong H2 guidance. Strategy in one line: Telfer funds Havieron.

H1 FY26 Key Numbers:
· 154,411oz gold @ avg A$5,756/oz
· 6,578t copper @ A$13,606/t
· AISC A$2,176/oz · EBITDA A$560.3M

🗺️ Roadmap & Timeline

Q1 2026
NOW

✅ DELIVERED — 30 MAR 2026: Telfer MRE +150% → 8.0Moz Au (was 3.2Moz) · M&I up 163% → 3.8Moz · WDU maiden 0.6Moz @ 2.3g/t · Discovery cost ~US$5/oz · O'Callaghans tungsten MRE: 70Mt @ 0.35% WO₃ (246kt) — one of world's largest ex-China · Combined Telfer+Havieron: 14.9Moz Au + 645kt Cu
🔜 NEXT: Ore Reserve update (Q4 FY26 — June 2026 quarter) · Havieron FID · 100,000m drilling ongoing · GDXJ/GDX Q2 rebalance ~20 Jun 2026

H2 2026

Permanent COO appointed · Environmental approvals confirmed · Havieron FID announced · $500M debt drawn · WDU pre-feasibility complete · FY26 full-year results (260–310koz guidance; management expects upper end)

2027

Havieron box cut + portal construction · UG development ramps up · A$1.065bn capex program underway · Telfer continues as cashflow engine · WDU feasibility outcome → potential 3rd production source

2028–29

Havieron decline development · Shaft sinking · Pre-production stockpiling · First ore to Telfer mill · Infrastructure commissioning · WDU potentially in production via MDU spare capacity

2030+

Havieron nameplate: 266koz Au + 9,600t Cu/yr · AISC A$1,610/oz · Dual mine platform live · NPV A$2.9bn (base) / A$5.4bn (spot) unlocked · Potential triple platform with WDU

Sources: LSE RNS · Proactive Investors · Sharecast · H&L · Feb 2026 View all RNS ↗

⚠️ Key Mining Risks & Upcoming Catalysts Priced In

Deep dive: Havieron FS · Telfer ops · West Dome Underground · MRE delivered 30 Mar 2026: 8.0Moz Telfer · 14.9Moz combined

🔴 Havieron Development Risks

HIGH — Capex overrun
A$1.065bn target. Underground mines routinely run 15–30% over. Funding cushion exists but discipline critical.

HIGH — Environmental approvals
WA EPA targeted FY26. Remote Paterson Province. Aboriginal heritage consultations ongoing — any delay pushes FID and construction.

MED — Gold price sensitivity
Base case built on A$4,500/oz. Spot A$6,250 means project looks exceptional now — but a price reversal compresses NPV fast.

MED — Timeline slippage
Underground mine builds routinely slip 12–18 months. First production target (2030) has no buffer built in.

MED — Grade reconciliation
FS grade assumptions vs actual mined tonnes. Havieron is high-grade but underground complexity adds reconciliation risk.

LOW — Financing execution
$500M committed by ANZ/ING/HSBC/NAB/Westpac Tier 1 syndicate. Drawdown terms favourable — low risk unless gold crashes.

🟡 Telfer Operational Risks

MED ↓ — Grade decline trajectory
MRE now 8.0Moz — 4.9Moz West Dome OP (+135%) + 0.6Moz WDU @ 2.3g/t. Higher-grade WDU ore will blend with open pit. Stage 7 West Dome cutback still key H2 watch. Reduced but not eliminated.

MED — COO vacancy
Simon Tyrrell resigned Feb 2026. Acting COO Otto Richter in seat. Record MRE delivered successfully under acting leadership — some confidence restored. Permanent appointment still pending.

MED — Tailings Storage (TSF8)
Stage 3 lift complete, but TSF management in WA is highly regulated. Failure or regulatory action would halt production.

MED — WA cost inflation
Labour, diesel, equipment all inflated in WA. AISC at A$2,176/oz is manageable at spot but leaves limited margin if costs rise.

LOW — Put options — floor protection, full upside retained
225,004oz put options Jan 2026–Jun 2027 @ A$4,500/oz avg strike. These are not forward sales — GGP sells at spot (currently A$7,208) and only exercises the put if gold falls below A$4,500. Full upside to gold price is retained.

LOW — Infrastructure age
Telfer built by Newcrest — aging plant. MDU operating at 1.2Mtpa vs 5Mtpa+ historical. Maintenance capex risk manageable but real.

📊 What's Priced In vs Not

✅ Already Priced In

· COO departure — market absorbed, barely moved
· H1 results — fully baked in at 757p
· Havieron FS capex A$1.065bn — known
· $500M debt facility — announced
· Conservative FY26 guidance — market expects beat
· Record drilling program — widely flagged
· ✅ Telfer MRE +150% → 8.0Moz (30 Mar) — catalyst delivered, broker upgrades now pending
· ✅ WDU maiden 0.6Moz @ 2.3g/t — confirmed, ~3–5yr mine life extension
· ✅ O'Callaghans tungsten 70Mt MRE — world-class critical mineral optionality confirmed

❗ NOT Yet Priced In (Next Catalysts)

· Broker target upgrades — ✅ Macquarie 682p→698p BUY + RBC Capital 765p→807p BUY (both 30 Mar). More upgrades incoming
· Ore Reserve update (Q4 FY26) — June 2026 quarter. 8.0Moz MRE → bigger Reserve = longer mine life priced in
· Havieron FID — environmental approval + board sanction = major re-rating event
· WDU pre-feasibility / FID — 0.6Moz @ 2.3g/t now defined, FS next
· Environmental approval timing — WA EPA delay = selloff risk
· Permanent COO appointment — confidence signal
· Telfer H2 production beat vs 260–310koz guidance
· Gold price correction — A$6,250 → A$5,000 range would hurt near-term NPAT

✅ West Dome Underground — Official JORC MRE Delivered 30 Mar 2026

✅ Official JORC maiden MRE confirmed. See ASX announcement 30 Mar 2026.

Drilling data used:
· WSC: 700m+ strike · 200m+ dip · 40–70m true width
· Best hits: 82.2m @ 1.90g/t; 56.6m @ 2.24g/t
· W. Limb: 500m+ strike; 34.5m @ 4.06g/t; 30m @ 5.6g/t
· E. Limb: comparable; 30m @ 5.6g/t; 35m @ 2.9g/t
· 19 holes, >9,000m Phase 2; system open all directions

✅ Official JORC Resource (30 Mar 2026)

WDU Total Resource0.6Moz Au

Grade2.3g/t Au

StatusMaiden — open all directions

Mine life extension~3–5 years (MDU)

NPV add (A$5k gold)~A$500M–1bn+

Wilson's Read: WDU delivered 0.6Moz @ 2.3g/t — conservative first cut, system wide open. Key point: no new plant needed. MDU infrastructure running at a fraction of capacity means WDU ore goes straight to mill. At A$6,000+/oz gold this 0.6Moz alone adds A$700M–A$1bn+ to mine economics, largely not in any current analyst target. Pre-feasibility is the next WDU trigger. If 100,000m H2 drilling expands this to 1Moz+, re-rating is significant.

💰 Fair Value — PE Multiples & DCF · Wilson's Model

📄 Full Report (Print to PDF) ↗

P/E Multiple Scenarios — Updated Post-MRE · ASX (A$) & AIM (p)

Basis: 671M shares · AUD/USD 0.63 · AUD/GBP 0.485 · Gold AUD A$7,208/oz spot · 300koz/yr Telfer · AISC ~A$1,750/oz · 150koz put options @ A$4,500 floor (through Jun 2027) — full upside retained · 25% tax · ⚠️ Not financial advice

Scenario	NPAT est.	EPS	PE 10× ASX / AIM	PE 15× ASX / AIM	PE 20× ASX / AIM	vs A$10.56 now
🏭 Telfer (current — put options on 150koz)150koz put floor A$4,500 + 150koz @ spot A$7,208 · full upside retained	~A$811M	A$1.21	A$12.10 587p	A$18.15 880p	A$24.20 1,173p	8.7× implied
🏭 Telfer (full spot exposure)Jun 2027+ · put options expire · 300koz @ spot A$7,208 · 8.0Moz MRE = 16.5yr mine life	~A$1,116M	A$1.66	A$16.60 805p	A$24.90 1,208p	A$33.20 1,610p	+136% at PE15
⛏️ Telfer + WDU Online~2028 · +70koz WDU · 0.6Moz @ 2.3g/t · 17.8yr total	~A$1,280M	A$1.91	A$19.10 926p	A$28.65 1,390p	A$38.20 1,853p	+171% at PE15
🚀 Full Platform 2030+ · Telfer + Havieron (266koz) + WDU = 566koz+/yr	~A$2,204M	A$3.29	A$32.90 1,595p	A$49.35 2,392p	A$65.80 3,190p	+367% at PE15

⚡ MRE UPDATE 30 MAR 2026: Mine life 8yr → 16.5yr (8.0Moz, 62% reserve conversion, 300koz/yr). DCF extended accordingly. Gold AUD A$7,208/oz vs A$4,500 put floor — put options expire Jun 2027. Full spot exposure from then. Earnings at current spot ~63% above A$4,500 floor.

DCF Base (10%, conservative)

A$27.90

~1,352p

16.5yr life · A$4,500 gold

+164% upside

DCF Bull (8%, spot gold)

A$44.00

~2,134p

Full spot · A$7,208/oz

+317% upside

DCF Bear (12%, A$4k gold)

A$19.50

~945p

14yr life · stress test

+85% upside

Wilson's Central View

A$27–34

1,310–1,649p

12-month · post-MRE revised ↑

+156–222% from A$10.56

🥇 All Scenarios at USD $5,000/oz Gold (A$7,937/oz at AUD/USD 0.63)

Note: Current spot A$7,208/oz already on this trajectory. $5k USD = A$7,937 at 0.63 — only 10% above current AUD gold price.

Scenario @ $5k USD gold	NPAT	EPS	PE 10× ASX / AIM	PE 15× ASX / AIM	PE 20× ASX / AIM
🏭 Telfer Only (full spot)	~A$1,279M	A$1.91	A$19.10 926p	A$28.65 1,390p	A$38.20 1,853p
⛏️ Telfer + WDU (2028)	~A$1,423M	A$2.12	A$21.20 1,028p	A$31.80 1,542p	A$42.40 2,056p
🚀 Full Platform (2030+)	~A$2,639M	A$3.93	A$39.30 1,906p	A$58.95 2,859p	A$78.60 3,812p

DCF Base @ $5k USD (16.5yr)

A$41.00

~1,989p · +288% upside

DCF Bull @ $5k USD (8%, 16.5yr)

~A$53.50

~2,595p · +407% upside

Implied PE @ $5k gold (now)

5.5×

Trading at extreme discount · EPS A$1.91

· 🚨 MRE UPDATE 30 MAR 2026 — Telfer 8.0Moz (+150%). Mine life: 8yr → 16.5yr. DCF base revised from A$18.96 → A$27.90 (mine life extension only, conservative gold). No broker has updated models yet — institutional upgrades pending.
· Current price A$10.56 = 62% discount to updated DCF base (A$27.90) · 76% discount to DCF bull (A$44.00) · Trading at only 8.7× current earnings
· Gold AUD A$7,208/oz vs A$4,500 put floor — put options expire Jun 2027. Full spot exposure from then. Earnings at current spot jump to ~A$1,116M. $5,000 USD gold (A$7,937) is only 10% above current AUD price — DCF at that level: A$41.00 / 1,989p (+288%)
· 🏆 ASX 100 + GDX inclusion March 2026 = significant structural passive inflows. Argonaut A$16.00 · TipRanks high 968p · Investing.com high A$18.50 — all look conservative at current gold
· ⚠️ NOT financial advice — Full report ↗

📦 ETF Inclusion — GDXJ & GDX (VanEck)

GDXJ: ✅ confirmed · GDX: ✅ confirmed 20 Mar 2026 · ASX 100: ✅ confirmed 23 Mar 2026

✅ GDXJ — Junior Gold Miners ETF (CONFIRMED)

GGP Weighting (Q1)

~1.0–1.3%

118 holdings · revised up Mar 2026

Shares Held

14.15M

14,152,148 shares

GDXJ AUM

$8.48B

USD · as of 27 Mar 2026

GGP Value in ETF

~$85–110M

USD · est. Mar 2026 · AUM fell with gold

· GDXJ tracks the MVIS® Global Junior Gold Miners Index

· GGP sits at #25 in GDXJ — top 30% of the fund by weighting

· As market cap grows and liquidity increases, weighting will rise at each rebalance

· Current weighting likely to increase at March 2026 rebalance given strong price performance

GDXJ Rebalance Schedule (MarketVector)
✅ Q1: implemented 20 Mar 2026 · Q2: announced 12 Jun, effective 19 Jun 2026
Q3: announced 11 Sep, effective 18 Sep · Q4: announced 11 Dec, effective 18 Dec 2026
GDXJ Holdings ↗

✅ GDX — Gold Miners ETF (CONFIRMED 20 MAR 2026)

✅ INCLUDED

GDX AUM (current)

$26.6B

USD · 54 holdings · 27 Mar 2026

GGP in GDX (est.)

~0.7–1.0%

~$190–265M USD at 27 Mar AUM

✅ GDX Q1 INCLUSION COMPLETE · Q2 Rebalance 19 Jun 2026 — Weighting Estimate

✅ GGP confirmed in GDX. Basis: MVGDX peers — NST 2.48% · EVN 1.64% · OGC 1.07% (at 27 Mar). GGP ~A$7.7B → est. 0.7–1.0%. AUM now $26.6B.

Scenario	Weighting	GDX Buying	+ GDXJ Total	Price Impact	Target
🐻 Bear Float discount / new ASX listing	~0.7%	~$186M	~$271M	+12–22%	845p–921p
📊 Base Full float · peer Evolution Mining (A$9.5B→1.85%)	~0.85%	~$226M	~$311M	+20–35%	906p–1,019p
🚀 Bull Gold higher at rebalance · full ASX+AIM float	~1.0%	~$266M	~$351M	+20–35%	906p–1,019p

· GDX tracks MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index (MVGDXTR) — 51 components · switched from NYSE Arca 22 Sep 2025 · GGP included from 20 Mar 2026

· Already in GDXJ = VanEck familiarity — "promotion" from junior to senior ETF is natural next step

· Historical comps: De Grey +18% (GDXJ) · OceanaGold +15% (GDX) · Bellevue +12% (GDXJ)

· Smart money typically front-runs 1–2 weeks before official announcement — watch volume closely

· GGP ADTV ~$22M/day on ASX — both GDX (~$226M) and GDXJ (~$95M) holdings now structural and permanent buyers at each rebalance

✅ MVGDX Inclusion Criteria (satisfied): MCap ≥ $150M ✅ · ADTV ≥ $1M ✅ · ≥250k shares/month ✅ · ≥50% revenue gold/silver ✅ · Max 20% cap ✅. GGP included effective 20 Mar 2026. Quarterly review. Next GDX rebalance: announced 12 Jun, effective 19 Jun 2026 — first post-MRE weighting review. Index next review date confirmed at MarketVector.

GDX official ↗ · GDX Holdings ↗ · MVGDX Index ↗

📅 Key ETF Dates & Market Impact

2026 Rebalance Calendar

✅ 20 Mar 2026GDX Q1 — GGP included · MVGDXTR effective

✅ 23 Mar 2026S&P/ASX 100 — GGP included · effective open

✅ Mar 2026GDXJ Q1 rebalance — GGP weighting revised

12 Jun 2026MVGDX Q2 announced (GDX/GDXJ)

19 Jun 2026GDX/GDXJ Q2 rebalance effective — first post-MRE weighting review

~5 Jun 2026S&P/ASX Q2 review announced (1st Fri Jun)

~19 Jun 2026S&P/ASX Q2 effective — ASX 100 weighting updated

11 Sep 2026GDX/GDXJ Q3 announced · effective 18 Sep

11 Dec 2026GDX/GDXJ Q4 announced · effective 18 Dec

🏆 S&P/ASX 100 Inclusion

Effective date23 Mar 2026 (open)

Indices addedASX 20 · 50 · 100 · 200 · 300

GGP ASX 100 weighting (est.)~0.3–0.4%

Est. forced passive buyingA$300–600M+

Next review announced~5 Jun 2026 (1st Fri June)

Next review effective~19 Jun 2026

S&P/ASX reviews quarterly: announced 1st Friday of Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec · effective ~2 weeks later

Combined ETF Buying Pressure

GDXJ holding (est. Q1 2026)~$85–110M USD

GDX holding (est. ~0.85% of $26.6B)~$226M USD

Combined ETF (est. Mar 2026)~$311–336M USD

Note: AUM reduced vs prior est. (gold correction)GDX was ~$36.5B, now $26.6B

⚠️ Estimated — official GGP weighting not published. Q2 19 Jun 2026 = first post-MRE weighting revision.

Wilson's read: GDX inclusion ✅ confirmed (March 2026). Passive ETF inflows now structural. MRE delivered 30 Mar — Telfer 8.0Moz (+150%), combined 14.9Moz, WDU 0.6Moz @ 2.3g/t. Next catalysts: Ore Reserve update Q4 FY26 (bigger reserve = longer mine life priced in) + Havieron FID (re-rating event) + WDU pre-feasibility. No broker has upgraded post-MRE yet — that's the next near-term trigger.

🩳 Short Positions — AIM & ASX

Source: FCA daily short positions report (AIM) · ASIC (ASX) · Disclosed ≥0.5% only

🇬🇧 AIM — LON:GGP Current Shorts

Total Disclosed Short Interest

0.0%

✅ All disclosed shorts covered

Last disclosure: Jane Street 0.49% — 20 Jan 2026
Dropped below 0.5% threshold — no longer reportable

Jane Street Group LLC

Last: 0.49% · 20 Jan 2026

↓ Reducing — was 0.75% in Dec 2025

<0.5%

COVERED*

Regal Funds Management

Closed: 0.00% · 11 Dec 2025

✅ Fully covered — was 0.52% Oct 2025

0.0%

CLOSED

Arrowstreet Capital LP

Dropped below threshold: 2 Oct 2025

✅ Covered — was 0.80% peak Aug 2025

<0.5%

COVERED

* Positions below 0.5% are not required to be disclosed under FCA rules. May still hold a small position. Source: ShortTracker ↗ · ShortData ↗

📉 Short Position History — AIM (FCA Disclosed)

Arrowstreet Capital Regal Funds Jane Street

· Bullish signal: All 3 short sellers have covered since Aug 2025 peak
· Arrowstreet peaked at 0.80% (Aug 2025) — fully covered by Oct 2025
· Regal fully covered Dec 2025 · Jane Street reduced from 0.75% → <0.5% Jan 2026
· Net short squeeze potential as shorts continue covering into rising price

🇦🇺 ASX — GGP.AX Short Selling

⚠️ ASX Short Data — ASIC Fortnightly Report

ASX short selling is disclosed differently to AIM — ASIC publishes aggregate short positions fortnightly rather than individual fund disclosures. Specific fund-level data requires a paid data provider (ORTEX, S3 Partners).

Key context: Given the stock is up +140% in 6 months, any meaningful short position on the ASX would be under severe squeeze pressure at current levels.

Live Short Data Sources

📊 ORTEX — ASX:GGP Short Interest (live) 📈 Market Index — ASX:GGP Data 🏦 ASX Official Company Page 🩳 ShortTracker.com.au — ASX Shorts

Wilson's read: The covering of all three AIM short sellers (Arrowstreet, Regal, Jane Street) as the stock rallied is a clear bullish signal. Short sellers have been wrong and are exiting. With 0% disclosed shorts on AIM and a new ATH at 757p — the shorts are toast. 🔥

🎯 Analyst Price Targets & Recommendations

Updated: 30 Mar 2026 · Upgraded: Macquarie 698p ⬆ · RBC Capital 807p ⬆

🇬🇧 AIM London — LON:GGP (pence)

Berenberg Bank

Last changed: Apr 2025 (pre-listing — stale)

⚠️ Pre-20:1 consolidation target — needs update post AIM listing

~240p*

STALE

Canaccord Genuity

Last changed: Dec 2024 (pre-listing — stale)

⚠️ Pre-listing coverage on old structure — needs refresh

~380p*

STALE

Investors Chronicle (2 analysts)

Last changed: Feb 2026

High: 821p · Low: 684p

753p

MEDIAN

TipRanks (8 analysts, 3 months)

Last updated: Mar 2026

High: 968p · Low: 288p

675p

AVG

Citi

Downgraded: Mar 2026 (from Buy)

Downgrade likely on price run + near-term risk. MRE could prompt review.

780p

NEUTRAL

Macquarie ⬆ UPGRADED 30 Mar

Adam Baker · Raised: 682p → 698p · Post-MRE upgrade

First broker to revise post-30 Mar MRE announcement

698p

BUY

RBC Capital Markets ⬆ UPGRADED 30 Mar

Alex Sheridan Barkley ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ · Raised: 765p → 807p · Post-MRE upgrade

5-star analyst — highest rated GGP coverage

807p

BUY

MA Financial Group SELL Reiterated

Paul Sheridan Hissey ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ · 30 Mar 2026 · Lone bear

-7.44% downside implied — consensus outlier

522p

SELL

MarketBeat (8 analysts)

Last updated: 24 Mar 2026

Consensus: Moderate Buy

592p

MOD BUY

📊 AIM Consensus Summary

AVG TARGET

675p

HIGH

968p

Citi pre-DG

LOW

288p

vs current 511p (27 Mar close) · 564.8p intraday 30 Mar · Avg 675p = +19% upside from 27 Mar close ✅

🇦🇺 ASX Australia — ASX:GGP (AUD)

Macquarie

Last changed: Nov 2025 (reiterated)

Initiated Jun 2025 @ A$7.80 · raised Nov 2025

A$10.50

OUTPERFORM

RBC Capital Markets

Last changed: Dec 2025 (initiated)

Initiated coverage at listing

A$7.70

SECTOR PERF

Argonaut Securities

Last changed: Dec 2025 (post FS)

Co-manager on ASX IPO · 50/50 spot/NPV blend model

A$16.00

BUY

Consensus (Investing.com — 9 analysts)

Updated: Mar 2026

High: A$18.50 · Low: A$5.60

A$13.14

MOD BUY

📊 ASX Consensus Summary

AVG TARGET

A$13.14

HIGH

A$16.00

LOW

A$5.50

vs current ~A$9.76 · All analyst targets now imply very significant upside from current levels ✅

📈 Ratings Breakdown & Wilson's View

BUY

HOLD/NEUTRAL

SELL

📊 Current context: Price pulled back significantly from ATH (757p → 511p on AIM, A$14.43 → A$9.76 ASX). Most analyst targets now above current price. MarketBeat avg 592p · TipRanks avg 675p · both imply meaningful upside. MRE catalyst (30 Mar) not yet priced into any published targets.

· Bull case (Argonaut A$16.00 / TipRanks high 968p / Investing.com high A$18.50) — reflects Havieron NPV at spot gold + full MRE upside

· Bear case (RBC A$7.70 / Investing.com low A$5.60 / TipRanks low 288p) — assumes gold price normalisation + capex blowout at Havieron

· Wilson's view: Citi downgraded to Neutral (780p) ~3 weeks ago — but MRE just landed with 8.0Moz Telfer (+150%). No broker has revised post-30 Mar yet. Next wave of upgrades should come when Ore Reserve drops (Q4 FY26). Argonaut A$16.00 / TipRanks high 968p / Investing.com high A$18.50 all look increasingly realistic at current gold prices.

· ✅ WDU MRE delivered: West Dome Underground 0.6Moz @ 2.3g/t confirmed 30 Mar 2026. Analyst upgrades expected — watch for broker target revisions in coming weeks.

Sources

TipRanks ↗ · Investors Chronicle ↗ · Investing.com ↗ · TradingView ↗

⚗️ O'Callaghans Tungsten — Critical Mineral Optionality · 100% Greatland-Owned

📄 ASX Announcement ↗

📍 Asset Overview

Resource70Mt @ 0.35% WO₃

Contained WO₃246,000t

Copper credit207,000t Cu

Zinc credit371,000t Zn

Lead credit182,000t Pb

Confidence>95% Indicated

Location10km from Telfer

Ownership100% Greatland

Prior PFS2014 (Newcrest) — 2.0Mtpa UG

Shaun Day: "One of the world's largest high-grade tungsten deposits, in close proximity to Telfer's infrastructure. We are considering appropriate options to demonstrate and enhance value."

🌍 Global Supply Crisis

China controls ~80% of global tungsten production and ~90% of processing. No Western nation can manufacture advanced military hardware, industrial cutting tools, or semiconductors without it.

Jan 2025: China imposed export controls on tungsten — effective ban on exports to "unfriendly" nations. China then flipped to a net importer mid-2025 for the first time in decades, draining global supply.

APT spot Mar 2026: ~US$2,250/MTU — up +534% in 12 months. Tungsten is experiencing a genuine supply-shock supercycle.

Critical mineral designation: AU · US · EU · UK · Canada · Japan · India — all now actively funding development of non-Chinese sources.

Key uses: Tungsten carbide (cutting tools, mining drills) · Military (armour-piercing rounds, missile components) · Semiconductors · Aerospace alloys · EV motors

🚨 O'Callaghans sits in one of the world's most geopolitically valuable resource categories at exactly the right moment.

💰 Comparable Transactions & Valuation

Recent Deals / Benchmarks

Almonty / Sangdong (Korea)
~2,577kt WO₃ P&P · Multiple govt financing deals, KfW loan, US DoD interest · Market cap ~C$500M+ at peak despite smaller resource base than O'Callaghans. Benchmark: ~US$300–500/t WO₃ in-situ for a producing or near-production asset.

Almonty / Gentung (Montana, US)
Acquired Nov 2025 for US$10M — near-term production, small resource. Demonstrates strategic buyers are active at any price.

USGS / IEA long-term price
US$700–1,500/MTU WO₃ used for NPV modelling. Spot now US$2,250/MTU — all models severely understated.

Fastmarkets (Feb 2026)
APT US$1,500–1,550/MTU — already surged 216% from Jan 2025. Mar 2026 reports: US$2,250/MTU trailing 12-month avg.

In-Situ Value at Spot

246,000t WO₃ @ US$2,250/MTU~US$55B

207kt Cu @ US$9,500/t~US$2.0B

Total gross in-situ~US$57B+

⚠️ In-situ gross — not NPV. Recovery & capex discounts heavily apply.

📈 Acquisition Range & Wilson's Read

Realistic Transaction Range

BEAR CASE

A$1–2B

JV / earn-in
~5% of gross

BASE CASE

A$3–5B

Outright sale
~8–12% of gross

BULL CASE

A$6–9B

Strategic premium
bid war / US/EU govt

· JV / earn-in (most likely near term): A strategic partner funds capex in exchange for 50–70% interest. GGP retains upside, removes development risk.

· Trade sale: Western defence-aligned major (Almonty, US DoD vehicle, EU critical minerals fund) buys 100%. At current spot, A$3–5B is defensible for a fully-scoped feasibility asset.

· Strategic premium: If a US or EU govt-backed vehicle bids for supply security, precedent suggests 15–20% of in-situ. At US$2,250/MTU that's A$6–9B.

· GGP's current total market cap: ~A$7.5–8B. O'Callaghans alone — in the bull case — equals or exceeds the entire company's present valuation. This is the asymmetric upside the market is barely pricing.

Wilson's Read: O'Callaghans is sitting in the middle of a 534% price surge in its primary commodity, with China's export ban creating the most acute Western supply crisis since the rare earth shock of 2010. Greatland's management have been clear: primary focus stays gold + Havieron. That means O'Callaghans gets monetised — JV or sale. A bear-case JV at A$1–2B adds ~20–25% to GGP's market cap from an asset that doesn't appear in any analyst model yet. The bull case — a US or Australian govt-backed strategic acquisition at spot — is transformational. This is the option that most GGP holders haven't priced in.

📊 Peer Comparison — GGP vs ASX & North American Gold Miners

Source: StockAnalysis.com · GuruFocus · Company filings · 30 Mar 2026 · TTM figures · * = estimated · GGP EPS A$1.032 (basis for all implied prices)

GGP PE (TTM)

10.5×

vs sector 16.2×

PE Discount to Peers

−35%

most undervalued

EV/EBITDA

5.8×

vs sector 7.8× avg

GGP D/E Ratio

0.02

lowest in sector

GGP Dividend

Nil

catalyst: H2 FY26

Company	Ticker	Mkt Cap	PE (TTM)	Fwd PE	EV/EBITDA	Reserves (Moz)	M&I+Inf (Moz)	PE vs GGP	GGP @ peer PE
⭐ Greatland Resources	GGP	A$7.7B	10.5×	9.2×	5.83×	~6.9Moz*	14.9Moz	—	A$10.84 / 564p
🦘 ASX Gold Miners
Northern Star Resources	NST	A$27.9B	16.9×	11.1×	7.43×	~21Moz*	~40Moz*	+61%	A$17.45 / 908p
Evolution Mining	EVN	A$25.4B	19.0×	12.2×	8.25×	~16Moz*	~30Moz*	+81%	A$19.62 / 1,021p
Ramelius Resources	RMS	A$6.8B	18.3×	13.4×	7.42×	~4Moz*	~8Moz*	+74%	A$18.89 / 983p
Perseus Mining	PRU	A$6.7B	12.8×	9.6×	5.98×	~5Moz*	~9Moz*	+22%	A$13.21 / 688p
OceanaGold Corp	OGC	~A$5.5B	~14.0×*	~9.5×*	~7.5×*	~5Moz*	~9Moz*	+33%	A$14.45 / 752p
Capricorn Metals	CMM	A$4.8B	19.4×	11.5×	12.03×	~3Moz*	~5Moz*	+85%	A$20.03 / 1,042p
Regis Resources	RRL	A$4.8B	9.9×	5.4×	3.91×	~4Moz*	~7Moz*	−6%	A$10.22 / 532p
Genesis Minerals	GMD	~A$3.2B*	~22.0×*	~12.0×*	~9.0×*	~4Moz*	~7Moz*	+110%	A$22.71 / 1,182p
🍁 North American Gold Miners (TSX / NYSE) — Higher PE Comps
Kinross Gold (NYSE: K)	K	~US$14B	17.0×	~12×*	~7.5×*	~27Moz*	~52Moz*	+62%	A$17.55 / 913p
Agnico Eagle (NYSE: AEM)	AEM	~US$60B	22.0×	~18×*	~14×*	55.4Moz	88.9Moz	+110%	A$22.71 / 1,182p
Alamos Gold (TSX: AGI)	AGI	~US$9B	24.0×	~19×*	~12×*	~12Moz*	~22Moz*	+129%	A$24.78 / 1,289p
Wesdome Gold (TSX: WDO)	WDO	~C$3B	~28.0×*	~22×*	~14×*	~3Moz*	~5Moz*	+167%	A$28.91 / 1,504p
📊 Blended Sector Median	—	—	16.2×	10.7×	7.8×	—	—	+54% avg	A$16.72 / 870p
⭐ GGP — CURRENT (30 Mar 2026)	GGP	A$7.7B	10.5×	9.2×	5.83×	~6.9Moz*	14.9Moz	−35% disc.	A$10.84 / 564p

📉 Why the PE Discount Exists

· No dividend — income funds avoid non-payers. Sector avg yield: 1.3%.

· New listing — GGP only listed on ASX in late 2023 (carved out from Newcrest acquisition). Low institutional awareness in fund manager models.

· AIM/ASX dual-listed — UK retail investors used to 500p psychology; liquidity split creates arbitrage overhang.

· Havieron capex — A$1.065B build cost creates near-term free cash flow uncertainty despite strong earnings.

· No broker coverage has updated post-30 Mar MRE — valuation models are stale.

📈 Catalysts to Close the Gap

· Dividend initiation (H2 FY26) — even a 1% yield unlocks income mandates. This alone could re-rate 10–15%.

· Broker upgrades post-MRE — ✅ Macquarie + RBC Capital both upgraded 30 Mar. More to follow — no broker has downgraded post-MRE.

· Ore Reserve update Q4 FY26 — reserve upgrade = longer mine life = lower risk = higher PE deserved.

· Havieron FID — removes biggest uncertainty, confirms growth runway.

· O'Callaghans JV/sale — adds hidden asset to market cap, zero current valuation.

💡 Wilson's Valuation Upside Math

If GGP re-rates to sector median PE of 16.2×:
→ A$16.72 / 870p (+54%)

If GGP re-rates to Evolution Mining PE of 19.0×:
→ A$19.62 / 1,021p (+81%)

If GGP re-rates to Agnico Eagle / Genesis PE of 22×:
→ A$22.71 / 1,182p (+110%)

If GGP re-rates to Alamos Gold PE of 24×:
→ A$24.78 / 1,289p (+129%)

If GGP re-rates to EV/EBITDA sector avg 7.8×:
→ A$15.70 / 817p (+45%)

⚠️ Based on GGP EPS A$1.032 (TTM). Post-MRE broker upgrades + Havieron production = additional upside not modelled here. O'Callaghans JV/sale = on top of all scenarios.

Data: StockAnalysis.com · GuruFocus · 30 Mar 2026 · TTM = trailing 12 months · * = estimated · D/E = debt/equity · Fwd PE = consensus forward estimate

📊 Key Metrics — H1 FY26

MarketBeat ↗

💰

Revenue H1

A$977M

~A$2bn ann.

📈

NPAT H1

A$342M

Record

🏦

Cash

A$948M

Zero debt

⛏️

Production

260–310koz

Upper end exp.

🪨

Total MRE

14.9Moz Au

+645kt Cu

🔮

Havieron NPV

A$2.9bn

FID H2 FY26

⚡

Tungsten

246kt W

70Mt @ 0.35%

✅

H2 Guidance

On Track

Production up

🗺️ Project Portfolio

Western Australia · 8 projects · View all on Greatland Resources ↗

⚙️

Telfer Mine

Paterson Province, WA

100% owned. Australia's largest gold-copper operation. H1 FY26: A$977M revenue · A$342M NPAT · A$948M cash · zero debt. MRE +150% → 8.0Moz Au (30 Mar). Ore Reserve update Q4 FY26.

✅ Producing On Guidance Gold + Copper 8.0Moz MRE

🔬

Havieron

45km east of Telfer, WA

100% owned. World-class high-grade Au-Cu deposit. FS: NPV A$2.9bn post-tax · capex A$1.065bn · AISC A$1,610/oz. Combined MRE: 14.9Moz Au + 645kt Cu. A$500M debt facility committed. FID H2 FY26.

🔜 Development High Grade NPV A$2.9bn FID H2 FY26

⛏️

West Dome Underground

Within Telfer, WA

Maiden MRE (30 Mar 2026): 0.6Moz @ 2.3g/t Au. High-grade underground within Telfer open pit footprint. Discovery cost ~US$5/oz. Pre-feasibility underway. Potential 3rd production source via MDU.

Pre-Feasibility 0.6Moz @ 2.3g/t Within Telfer

🔩

O'Callaghans

10km south of Telfer, WA

MRE (30 Mar 2026): 70Mt @ 0.35% WO₃ — 246kt tungsten. One of world's largest high-grade tungsten deposits outside China. Spot ~US$2,250/MTU. Critical mineral. Proximity to Telfer = potential low-cost development.

Exploration / MRE 246kt Tungsten Critical Mineral

🔍

Ernest Giles

Yilgarn, WA

~500km NE of Kalgoorlie. 3D IP survey complete (Meadows prospect). Diamond drilling ongoing Jan 2026. Early anomalies returning encouraging pathfinder mineralisation. Regional exploration upside — results flagged Q2 FY26.

Exploration Drilling Active Gold + Copper

🗺️

Panorama

Pilbara, WA

Exploration stage. Located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Early-stage tenements. No drilling results reported publicly. Regional upside play within the broader GGP portfolio.

Exploration Early Stage

🗺️

Mt Egerton

Central WA

Exploration stage. ~230km north of Meekatharra in the central WA gold camp. Tenements held. No active drilling results reported as at Q2 FY26.

Exploration Early Stage

🗺️

Yannarie

Gascoyne, WA

Exploration stage. ~150km SE of Exmouth in the Gascoyne region. Tenements held. No active drilling results reported as at Q2 FY26.

Exploration Early Stage

📰 Latest News & RNS

All RNS ↗

🚨 ASX RNS · 30 Mar 2026 — BREAKING

Telfer MRE +150% → 8.0Moz Au · Combined Telfer+Havieron: 14.9Moz Au + 645kt Cu · M&I up 163% · Discovery cost $5/oz · Ore Reserve update Q4 FY26

ASX Announcement · Resource Update

🚨 ASX RNS · 30 Mar 2026 — BREAKING

O'Callaghans Tungsten MRE: 70Mt @ 0.35% WO₃ · 246kt W + 207kt Cu + 371kt Zn · One of world's largest high-grade tungsten deposits outside China · Modelled at US$450/MTU vs spot US$2,250/MTU

ASX Announcement · Critical Minerals

RNS · 23 Feb 2026

H1 Results: Revenue ~A$1bn, NPAT A$342.9M — enters H2 with confidence

Sharecast · Headline

Mining Journal · 23 Feb 2026

Greatland's Telfer tracking well — production up, costs stable

Mining Journal · Operations

CNBC · 23 Feb 2026

CEO Shaun Day on CNBC: "Gold and copper — the ultimate hedge for tariffs"

CNBC · CEO Interview

TipRanks · Mar 2026

Greatland Resources to join S&P/ASX 100 in March index rebalance

TipRanks · Index Inclusion

Simply Wall St · Mar 4, 2026

Surging H1 earnings: Revenue A$977M, NPAT A$342.9M — investment story strengthens

Simply Wall St · Earnings

💡 Signal: MRE DELIVERED 30 Mar — 8.0Moz Telfer (+150%), 14.9Moz combined, WDU 0.6Moz @ 2.3g/t. AIM +10.5% intraday. No broker has revised targets yet — upgrade wave incoming. Next: Ore Reserve Q4 FY26. Structural floor: ASX 100 + GDX + GDXJ. Recovery path: A$11.38 → A$12.55 → retest ATH A$14.43.

📅 Upcoming Catalysts

· Broker upgrades — post-MRE, none filed yet

· Ore Reserve update — Q4 FY26

· Havieron FID — H2 FY26

· Dividend initiation — H2 FY26 expected

· O'Callaghans JV/sale — no timeline

🐦 X Community — Key Accounts

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@GreatlandGold

Official company account

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GGP investor relations

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GGP shareholder support

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Stuart · Portal creator

You ↗

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GGP community investor

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GGP community investor

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Greatland Resources (GGP) — Private Investor Portal

📈 AIM London — LON:GGP (pence)

📈 ASX Australia — ASX:GGP (AUD) + UK equiv.

⚠️ Key Mining Risks & Upcoming Catalysts Priced In

💰 Fair Value — PE Multiples & DCF · Wilson's Model

📦 ETF Inclusion — GDXJ & GDX (VanEck)

🩳 Short Positions — AIM & ASX

🎯 Analyst Price Targets & Recommendations

⚗️ O'Callaghans Tungsten — Critical Mineral Optionality · 100% Greatland-Owned

📊 Peer Comparison — GGP vs ASX & North American Gold Miners

🗺️ Project Portfolio

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